Прогноз Мусора.Больше.Нет 2014

Размещено: 15 ноября 2010 02:26 | Категория: Блог | Просмотров: 5315
Составил табличку, количество волонтёров и количество городов, участвующих в движении "Мусора.Больше.Нет" с 2007 по 2010 год. Занёс эту табличку в Excel и на основе этих данных построил прогноз на 2011-2014 годы. Смотрите, что получилось:

Это количество городов 2007-2010:


А это количество волонтёров 2007-2010:


Это прогноз количества городов:


А это прогноз количества волонтёров:


Получается, что если всё идёт как идёт, то в движении к 2014 будет 2,5 миллиона участников и 6 тысяч городов. Вообщем-то, это совпадает с интуитивными представлениями, ведь "Мусора.Больше.Нет" растёт не линейно, а по экспоненте. Чем больше движение, тем быстрее оно растёт. С городами тоже самое, чем больше городов, тем больше подключается новых. Начала Москва активно акции проводить - подключились новые города - Домодедово, Мытищи, Зеленоград. От Оренбурга и Челябинска волна пошла дальше, Златоуст, Набережные Челны, Курган. Это как снежный ком спущенный с горы!

А кроме этого дополнительную скорость придают общие технологии, то чему в первой группе пришлось учится несколько лет, новые группы осваивают сходу и идут дальше. Придумывают новые проекты и развивают существующие.

Вот тут, кстати, хочу поделиться технологией, как приглашать новые города http://goo.gl/g6Pmg. Пользуйтесь и пусть движение растёт ещё быстрее, чем по прогнозу :).

"Это бесполезно, на это жизни не хватит", так говорят, те кто мыслит линейно. Но если вы мыслите экспоненциально, то вам понятно, что можно значительных результатов достигать в короткие промежутки времени, используя самоускоряющиеся процессы.

А что нужно, чтобы процесс был самоускоряющимся? Думаете ли вы занимаясь проектами " Мусора.Больше.Нет", чтобы то что вы делаете было самоускоряющимся процессом? Это важно!

Если вы один убираете мусор, вам понадобятся тысячи лет. Если вы один делаете замечание людям, чтобы не мусорили, вам понадобятся тысячи лет. Но их у вас нет! Как же сделать, чтобы за время вашей жизни, вы увидели очевидные результаты ваших действий? Запустите самоускоряющийся процесс!

Убираете мусор? Вовлеките ещё нескольких людей в уборку мусора. И научите их вовлекать людей в уборку мусора. Объясните важность самоускоряющихся процессов! Расскажите, как это работает и они продолжат волну! И тогда у нас есть значительный шанс в 2014 году увидеть совсем другую Россию - Россию без мусора на природе!

Ну и конечно это может касаться не только мусора, а любой позитивной деятельности. Почему позитивной?! Да потому, что протестная деятельность не может быть самоускоряющимся процессом. Чем больше протестной деятельности, тем сильнее внешнее сопротивление и ускорения процесса не происходит!

Думаю, вам стало понятнее, почему мы не протестуем. И графики наглядно показывают, какие плоды это даёт!

Вопросы для понимания:
- Чем линейный рост отличается от экспоненциального?
- За счёт чего обеспечивается экспоненциальный рост движения Мусора.Больше.Нет?
- Что из того, что лично я делаю способствует экспоненциальному росту?

Исходные данные:


Теги: движение, Старк
Разместил: DenisStark

Комментарии посетителей:

Гость
#13

Гость пишет:

2017-12-26 11:38
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goods
#12

goods пишет:

2017-11-10 08:16
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Гость
#10

Гость пишет:

2017-08-25 15:31
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Гость
#9

Гость пишет:

2017-08-25 15:30
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By as well as large the actual success associated with terrorist strategies comes not really from devastating events, but in the "marketing associated with terrorism" : the communiqu?s, the actual threats, the actual innuendos, and also the disinformation. The truth is, terrorists should want to do very little to attain their objectives. But what that doctor needs to do is actually convince us that they're occasionally ready and capable of do exactly what they warned. Thus would be the events essential, but quite a bit less important since the propaganda campaigns that are constant as well as on-going, the items which keep your fear near and constant within our minds.    NewsCommunique
    
Just what exactly will you are doing if you utilize a method with AMD Phenom model and facing a challenge or it really is likely you will be purchasing a method with AMD Phenom to enable you to play game titles, surf online or assist your business office application.    Tech Processor
Moreover, when organizations hire a third party tech help services business, the obligations of offering timely steps, initiating revisions and renovations fall around the IT firm's shoulder to get a relatively lower cost compared to be able to hiring, training and also managing a team regarding technicians.    tech whatever
Our neighborhood library provides kept upwards with great technology and also trained professionals you will need to guide and also explain. Its everyday usage and also clientele have got dwindled since technology retailers and options have soared nonetheless it remains a wonderful resource.    technology turn
Number several found among the list of the leading 5 finest performing portable GPS have to be Pharos Traveler GPS, since it is possible to surf the net and nonetheless get best clear mapping concurrently.    Tech Hand held
At current however, three with the main industries inside the Dunedin harbor area fear they could be put away from business from the City Council's offer to rezone harbor side professional land for the usage being a residential and also commercial location.    new harbor tech
Solar cell technology is currently popular inside Europe and in a few parts in america. there are usually good reports around the development regarding new solar cells which converts higher power from the sun conversion performance.    obstructed technology
Through your cellular phone provider, you could possibly receive text messages and guide images on your own cell cell phone. Another solution to use the trick Service ways to track and also trace cellular phones is simply by installing microchips. Very tiny GPS chips could possibly be installed inside somebody's cellular phone when he could be not seeking.    tech trace
The Reddish Raiders are already the delight and delight of Colorado Tech University from the time they enjoyed their maiden inter-college video game against Mc Murry School, with any 0-0 link. The team can be a extremely active member of the Huge 12 Conference and contains won 11 awesome conference games.    inter active tech
Even people players that have played almost all along ahead of the Live Supplier gaming has been possible indicate which they do feel more confident in the particular legitimacy with the game if they are having fun with a stay dealer.    live technology
Lots of the organization would certainly provide shares with the business in line with the value with the money getting contributed by every person. They make every one of the decision regarding the company as well as the profit earned inside the company are provided to these kinds of share holders by means of dividends    share technology
Perhaps one of the most convincing argument and only a Clean treadmill could be the lifetime warrantee that will come as common on Clean frames and also motors. Using this confidence inside the products they feature, Smooth unquestionable know they may be on to a very important thing. And using a Smooth 7. 1 AN HOUR Pro or even a Smooth 5. 25 treadmill at home, you will probably be too.    smooth tech
The nights are properly gone once you could accept a fresh salesmen or perhaps women with a minimum of sales knowledge and expect these to learn on the job. Effective automobile sales personnel have become well-trained those who understand revenue psychology along with every car around the lot! They could answer inquiries on hybrids and also power tissues, and offer you advice according to sound complex knowledge.    technical knowledge
Exactly edge location regarding free cost-effective zone and extremely liberal legal guidelines system need to provoke getting foreign assets, as purchase environment inside Georgia just isn't very attractive from your various items of see.    technology zone
Phone methods using VoIP likewise have other rewards. With standard phone methods, users are usually billed either from the minute or the next. However, together with VoIP, your call is separated and sent from the internet by means of packets and also reassembles on the receiving conclusion. For this kind of reason, you might be billed considering data use.    tech system
How to be able to Stream Video on the net Tool is probably the most crucial tools that'll let you start making use of Videomarketing to market your website. Now it really is time to take action, so now it will be recommended to evaluate this special solution so that you can explore to see how it could easily increase productivity of your website.    stream technology
WiMax can be a high tech wireless broadband engineering facilitates large speed mobile internet access to the particular portable gadgets like notebooks, Netbooks, Smart-phones, PDAs and so forth.    access technology
The on the web selling web site gives bigger exposure for folks have grow to be extremely technical savvy and so are relying greatly on the net services to produce major acquisitions too.    tech portal
Original Medicare is composed of Parts Any and T, providing insurance coverage hospital and medical insurance coverage immediately. Part Any is clinic insurance, which usually helps protect inpatient attention in hostipal wards, skilled breastfeeding facilities, hospices and also home medical care.    101 health
The best medical insurance provider the following means a great ethical service provider who can understand the particular customer?s well being needs, who could supply you with the best program at affordable rates.    best health
No matter how several meals you eat a evening: this is different between civilizations and time periods. However, consistency is very important to steer clear of feeling hungry of course, if hungry among meals take in healthy snack foods. Avoid absent breakfast also, because slow-release vitality helps allow you to get through perform or university.    healthiness
Денис Старк
#8

Денис Старк пишет:

2010-11-19 00:37
Виталий, а как воспитывать-то? Мы вот через конкретное действие и вовлечение людей в уборки и другую эко-деятельность и "воспитываем". Мне только слово "воспитываем" не нравится, мы скорее создаём культуру и привычки. А как вы предлагаете воспитывать?
АдаменкоВиталий
#7

АдаменкоВиталий пишет:

2010-11-18 14:15
Я согласен с тем, что подобная организация необходима. Вместе с тем считаю, что проблему уборки мусора необходимо решать комплексно, т.е. не только организовывать рейды по уборке мусора, но и воспитывать у населения отношение переживания за свой двор, за свой город. Думаю, что в результате такой работы люди со временем станут ответственнее относиться к проблеме загрязнения окружающей среды. В конце концов, это мы, люди, разбрасываем мусор, и мы же его собираем.
EcopoloWnik
#6

EcopoloWnik пишет:

2010-11-16 21:29
а в статистике за предыдущие года учитывались ли... действовали в сезон или действия были круглогодичные!?
Андрей Немцов
#5

Андрей Немцов пишет:

2010-11-15 23:16
я согласен на все 100, но нужно и больше информации
Анжела Пиаже
#4

Анжела Пиаже пишет:

2010-11-15 11:23
скоро всё исправим:) приносим извинения за разные данные
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